2024 Presidential Race Heats Up: First Republican Primary Debate Sparks Expectations

Wednesday is the biggest day of the 2024 presidential race so far

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Eight candidates will take the stage in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for the first Republican primary debate.

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Chances are good that something will happen tonight that will be touted as a potential game-changer in the race

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But how can we know whether that moment really changes voters’ minds, or if it was just a tale of sound and fury, signifying nothing

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FiveThirtyEight has partnered with Ipsos and The Washington Post to conduct a Republican primary poll both before and after tonight’s debate

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The charts below represent the views of likely Republican primary voters between Aug. 15 and Aug. 22, the first wave of the poll

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Former President Donald Trump and DeSantis had the highest share of Republicans saying they were considering voting for them

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Candidates with low name recognition, like Burgum and Hutchinson, stand to gain the most from a strong debate performance.

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