2024 Presidential Race Heats Up: First Republican Primary Debate Sparks Expectations

Wednesday is the biggest day of the 2024 presidential race so far

Eight candidates will take the stage in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for the first Republican primary debate.

Chances are good that something will happen tonight that will be touted as a potential game-changer in the race

But how can we know whether that moment really changes voters’ minds, or if it was just a tale of sound and fury, signifying nothing

FiveThirtyEight has partnered with Ipsos and The Washington Post to conduct a Republican primary poll both before and after tonight’s debate

The charts below represent the views of likely Republican primary voters between Aug. 15 and Aug. 22, the first wave of the poll

Former President Donald Trump  and DeSantis had the highest share of Republicans saying they were considering voting for them

Candidates with low name recognition, like Burgum and Hutchinson, stand to gain the most from a strong debate performance.